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.His thinking should be expected to affect public pol-icy in economics and international trade.In a 1999 paper entitled, "The Case for the Amero: The Eco-nomics and Politics of a North American Monetary Union,"3Gruber explained his plans for creating the amero.He took painsto argue that the innovation would not necessarily erode nationalsovereignty.He suggested printing the new currency with theamero symbols on one side and the national emblems on theother side.The amero, however, would have its own value onforeign exchange markets, after the three countries convertedtheir currencies into the amero "at rates that leave unchangedeach country's real income, wealth, and international competi-tiveness at the time of conversion."4Grubel proposed, as an example, a plan to convert to the am-ero in 2010.On the day the North American Monetary Union is cre-ated perhaps on January 1, 2010  Canada, the UnitedStates, and Mexico will replace their national currencieswith the amero.On that day, all American dollar notesand coins will be exchanged at the rate of one U.S.dollarfor one amero.Canadian and Mexican currencies will beexchanged at rates that leave unchanged their nations'competitiveness and wealth.In all three countries, theprices of goods and services, wages, assets, and liabilities42 THE AMEROwill be simultaneously converted into ameros at the ratesat which currency notes are exchanged.5Ironically, this coincides with the Council on Foreign Relationstask force's report "Building a North American Community/'which suggests that same date as a target for putting in place thebasic institutions required for a new regional government.6At the same time, Grubel proposed a North American centralbank that would replace the national central banks of the threecountries and a board of governors that would be chosen to reflectthe economic importance and the population of the three countries.Almost as an aside, Grubel mentions an important rule: "As in Eu-rope, membership in the union will require that countries do notincur persistent budget deficits."7 While the United States shouldreduce federal budget deficits, this provision presupposes that theboard of governors of that regional bank would have supremacyover the U.S.Treasury, such that the North American Central Bankcould dictate specific U.S.budget deficit reductions as a conditionof continuing to participate in the continental banking and cur-rency structure.In other words, this suggestion would clearly im-pinge on the U.S.Treasury's sovereignty.Grubel argued that creating the amero would yield severalimportant benefits, including a reduction in the "size and risk offoreign-exchange operations engaged in by banks, firms, andtravelers as part of their routine economic activities."8 In a highlytechnical analysis, he argued that the U.S., Canada, and Mexicoconstitute an "optimal currency area," which economists feel jus-tifies the creation of a common currency across the region.Thatcommon currency would then fluctuate in value on world cur-rency exchanges, establishing a currency value for the ameroacross North America.The argument is similar to reasoning thateach individual state in the United States is too small an entityand not sufficiently distinct, such that each individual stateshould not have its own currency.Instead, the "optimal currencyarea" has been the United States as a whole.Thus, Grubel's basicargument is that North America is now the optimal currencyarea, and as such the common currency should be a North43 THE LATE GREAT USAAmerican currency designed to replace the U.S.dollar, the Cana-dian dollar, and the Mexican peso.Robert Pastor Promotes the AmeroWhile Grubel is the leading proponent on the Canadian side ofthe border, not surprisingly, Robert Pastor is leading the chargein America.In his 2001 book Toward a North American Community,Robert Pastor endorses the concept of the amero.Along the way,Pastor rejects "doUarization" as the method for obtaining a NorthAmerican Monetary Union.Under doUarization, Mexico andCanada would simply link or replace their currencies with theU.S.dollar, as several Central and South American countries havealready done.Pastor openly acknowledges that the idea of abandoning thedollar will be unpopular in the United States.He also under-stands that the United States economy dominates the NorthAmerican market and, as such, the United States has less to gainby abandoning the dollar to a new currency that would incorpo-rate Canada and Mexico in a monetary union.Still, Pastor arguesthat in the long run the concept is "fair" in that the introductionof the amero "does not alter the relative power equation in NorthAmerica, but it provides space for our neighbors to participate indecision making."9 Pastor compares "the essence of the idea"with how Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D.Roosevelt envi-sioned international organizations that allowed decision-makingspace for all participating nations on an equal basis, regardless oftheir relative strength or size.For this reason, Pastor urged read-ers not to dismiss the idea, but to consider that "in the long term,the amero is in the best interests of all three countries."10As early as 2002, in a speech given to the Trilateral Commis-sion, Dr.Pastor recommended the amero.In that speech he ar-gued that Mexicans and Canadians were ambivalent aboutadopting the American dollar, "but thev are more willing to be-come part of a single country of North America and of a unifiedcurrency like the amero, proposed bv Herbert Grubel."11 Pastorargued that "at the outset, the wealth o: all three countrieswould be unchanged, and the power to manage the currency44 THE AMEROwould be roughly proportional to the existing wealth." He thencontinued in uncharacteristically unguarded fashion, expressinghostility toward the concept of national sovereignty.Pastor ar-gued that the peoples of the three nations would be more will-ing to accept a new unified currency than to enter into a newregional government."The three governments remain zealousdefenders of an aging concept of sovereignty/' Pastor told theTrilateral Commission, "whereas the people seem ready to en-tertain new approaches."12A Coming Dollar Collapse?The arguments to implement the amero gain strength as the dol-lar continues to weaken.With our large trade and federal budgetdeficits, a fiscal crisis is building for the dollar.Other nations areincreasingly diversifying their foreign exchange holdings into theeuro.In late 2006, the dollar hit a twenty-month low against theeuro.For the year, the dollar fell approximately 11.5 percent ver-sus the euro, 13.6 percent versus the British pound, and 7.3 per-cent versus the Swiss franc.13Even as the stock market hit new record highs almost everyday during the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007, the FederalReserve and Treasury Department were quietly coordinating adevaluation of the dollar that the Bush administration hopedwould make its value decline slowly, rather than collapse.On November 10, 2005, the Federal Reserve announced that itplanned to stop publishing M3 data.Professional economists con-sider M3 the broadest measure of the U.S.money supply, includ-ing checking and savings accounts, cash, time deposits, andmoney market funds [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]

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